Pre-Disclaimer Disclaimer: Every DemystifyingMarkets posts ends with a compliance-mandated disclaimer stating that, among other things, nothing conveyed in these blogs should be considered investment advice. That has never been truer than in what you’re about to read. In fact, treating this as advice will probably result in irreparable financial loss and temporarily impaired personal relationships.
My wife and I moseyed into the stadium carefree and optimistic, ready to cap off a perfect weekend getaway. 90 minutes later we were fleeing campus like rats from a sinking ship—pissed off and in a hurry.
The main problem was trailing 13-7 to Northern Illinois at half. But the unrelenting screaming in my ear from the overzealous fan unmistakably from the West Side of Cleveland compounded that issue. “Didja see that?!? C’mahn defense! C’mahn o-line! For cryin’ out loud, we’re getting creamed!!!”
I couldn’t take it anymore. Our beautiful weekend was up in flames, as was any hope of Notre Dame contending for a national title.
Just a week prior, I placed a $10 bet on the Irish to win the national championship that would’ve paid $180. Several hours into the long, sad drive home, I decided to make it even sadder by checking FanDuel: I could cash out my bet early for $0.29. A -97% return on investment: Not good!
I decided not to cash out—what’s the point, $0.29 can’t even buy a York Mint at Skyline. Then, as Notre Dame began stacking wins, my cash-out offers gradually improved. Up to $4, $5.25, $7. After beating USC, three months after placing the wager, my bet had fully roundtripped—I could cash out at exactly $10. As of this writing, FanDuel is offering $17.28 for my ticket. I don’t know if ND will win it all, but they should beat Indiana. And perhaps I’m wearing shamrock-shaped glasses, but I think they’ll be favored against Georgia. I might be able to cash out for $70+ if they can pull that off. A 600% return on investment: Not bad!1
So, what’s the investment angle in this blog?
Don’t panic sell during a crash?
When gambling/speculating, only risk an amount you’re willing to lose?
Never make a financial decision with your heart (betting on your favorite team) instead of your head?
In a 12-team playoff format, don’t let an early-season loss ruin a precious alone time with your wife?
Sure, those all fit. Truthfully, I’m just excited and wanted an excuse to write about the college football playoff. For relevant investment commentary, check the archives. Go Irish!
1I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the most likely scenario—I hang on to the ticket, forgoing an early cash out, ND loses in heartbreaking fashion, and I’m out $10.
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