James Adducci, a self-employed day trader in Wisconsin, won $1.2 million earlier this year after betting his life savings on Tiger Woods to win the Masters. Luckily it worked out for him, but most people would recognize that it was not a wise move.
This past weekend unranked Iowa State trailed #9 Oklahoma 42-21 heading into the 4th quarter. ISU roared back the final quarter, scoring 20 straight points including the final touchdown with 24 seconds left to pull within an extra point of tying the game. Instead of playing for overtime, ISU’s coach Matt Campbell chose to go for two and pull off the upset in regulation. With all the momentum and only one play away from victory, it was the right decision. Unfortunately for the Cyclones, the conversion attempt was intercepted and Oklahoma survived.
Last year Newsweek published a feature on Fredie Blom, the world’s oldest man at 114. Unbelievably, smoking 2-3 cigarettes is part of his daily routine.
These anecdotes prove that statistics can be meaningless to the individual, but that doesn’t mean that they should be ignored. Knowing probabilities can help us make intelligent decisions, even if those decisions don’t pan out every time.
Guessing which stock will outperform or when the next market crash will occur is impossible to do consistently. Investing based on such predictions can occasionally work out, but the long-term odds aren’t in your favor. Intelligent investing is about giving yourself the best odds of success over your full time horizon, not constantly changing strategies, and praying you guessed right.
Wondering how to tip the odds in your favor? Here are a few basic ways:
- Diversify. Jack Bogle said, “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!” U.S. vs. international, large vs. small, value vs. growth, Netflix vs. Disney+. There is no shortage of choices in investing. Rather than agonizing over which segment will perform best, owning the haystack means you’ll capture market returns wherever they occur.
- Lower your costs. Expense ratios, transaction costs, sales loads, bid-ask spreads, taxes. Future returns are unknowable but costs are a guarantee.
- Embrace disciplined rebalancing. When stocks are in freefall, the economic outlook is bleak, CNBC is making relentless comparisons to 2008, and your buddy is boasting about how he got out of the market back when it was 15% higher, what are you going to do? Everyone knows panic selling at a low is a strategy destined for failure, but investing can be intensely emotion-driven. Sticking to a predefined rebalancing process means selling bonds to buy more stocks, instead of making a big mistake in the heat of the moment.
- Lengthen your time horizon. Stocks are positive on about 51% of days so if you check your portfolio daily, you’ll be disappointed 49% of the time. If you check quarterly, your odds of happiness jump to about 68%. Limiting your portfolio monitoring to once per year increases your odds to 75%.
Game-winning Hail Mary’s are occasionally completed, but a coach’s pregame speech never includes “let’s make sure we’re trailing late in the 4th quarter.” Set yourself up for long-term investing success by putting the odds in your favor.
Disclaimer: Truepoint Wealth Counsel is a fee-only Registered Investment Adviser (RIA). Registration as an adviser does not connote a specific level of skill or training. More detail, including forms ADV Part 2A & Form CRS filed with the SEC, can be found at TruepointWealth.com. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed, is to be construed as personalized investment, tax or legal advice.